India–EU Trade Deal: Clear Winners, Clear Losers

Jan 27, 2026

AdvisorAlpha

Summary

India–EU trade deal boosts textiles, IT, chemicals, auto parts; metals and OEMs face CBAM pressure.

These sectors stand to gain the most from tariff reductions (currently 10–14% in EU) and easier market access.

  1. Textiles & Apparel (Biggest Winner)
    Currently, Indian exporters pay ~10% duty, while competitors like Bangladesh pay 0%. The FTA levels this playing field.

  • Impact: Immediate margin expansion or volume growth.

  • Key Companies:

  • Gokaldas Exports & KPR Mill: Large garment exporters with significant exposure to Western markets.

  • Welspun Living & Indo Count: Home textiles (bed sheets/towels) exporters.

  • Raymond: Suitings/fabric exports could see demand spikes.

  1. IT Services & Tech
    The deal is expected to ease visa norms for professionals and data flow regulations (GDPR alignment), effectively lowering the cost of doing business.

  • Impact: Higher deal win rates in Europe (traditionally a harder market than the US).

  • Key Companies:

  • TCS, Infosys, Wipro: All have been aggressively expanding European local delivery centers.

  • L&T Technology Services (LTTS): Benefits from European auto/manufacturing R&D outsourcing.

  1. Specialty Chemicals & Pharma
    Tariff elimination on chemicals will boost competitiveness against China. For Pharma, easier certification processes are the main goal.

  • Impact: Increased volume for contract manufacturers and generic exporters.

  • Key Companies:

  • SRF & Navin Fluorine: High export exposure in chemicals.

  • Divi’s Labs & Syngene: Contract manufacturing beneficiaries.

  1. Auto Components (Ancillaries)
    While complete cars are a sensitive topic, components are a sweet spot. Europe wants to diversify supply chains away from China (China+1).

  • Impact: Higher export orders for precision parts.

  • Key Companies:

  • Motherson Sumi (SAMIL): Already has huge revenue from Europe (Audi, VW, etc.).

  • Bharat Forge: Supplier of forged components to European truck/auto makers.
    🔴 The Risky/Challenged Sectors
    These sectors face headwinds from non-tariff barriers, specifically the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), essentially a "carbon tax" on imports entering the EU starting fully in 2026.

  1. Metals (Steel & Aluminum)
    The EU will tax imports based on the carbon emissions generated during their production. Indian steel is coal-heavy and carbon-intensive.

  • Impact: Exports to EU will become 20–35% more expensive, eroding margins or market share.

  • Key Companies at Risk:

  • Tata Steel: High exposure to Europe (though their Dutch plant helps, their Indian exports will be taxed).

  • JSW Steel & Jindal Steel (JSP): Significant export volumes could be hit.

  • Hindalco / Vedanta: Aluminum exports face similar carbon scrutiny.

  1. Automobile OEMs (Luxury Competition)
    If India lowers import duties on European cars (currently 100%), European luxury cars (Audi, BMW, Mercedes) will become cheaper, challenging domestic premium segments.

  • Key Companies:

  • Tata Motors (JLR): Ironically, this helps JLR (their luxury arm) sell cheaper in India, but hurts their domestic mass-market EV dominance if cheap VW/Renault EVs flood in.

  • Mahindra: Could face stiff competition in the premium SUV segment.

Other likely winners; GMM Pfaudler, Marksans , Balkrishna Industries, SSWL, Sudarshan Chemical , UPL, Mastek , Bharat Forge etc

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SEBI regional office – G Block, Near Bank of India, Plot No. C 4-A, G Block Rd, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra East, Mumbai, Maharashtra 400051

© 2025 All rights reserved Advisor Alpha.

Download the App

SEBI Registration Number (RA License) – INH000021818

CIN: U67200MH2020PTC338091

BSE Enlistment number 6793

About the company

Registration Name – Renaissance Smart Tech Private Limited

Type of Registration- Non-Individual

Separate Identifiable division of RA: Advisor Alpha.

Date of grant and Validity of Registration: July 14, 2025 – Perpetual

SEBI registration No : INH000021818

BSE Enlistment No.: 6793

Office Address: Office No. 508, 5th Floor, B Wing, Mittal Commercial Premises CHS Ltd Off. M.V. Road. Near Mittal Estate, Marol, Andheri (East), Mumbai- 400059

Compliance & Grievance officer

Ms. Nidhi Kamani

Contact number: 8655387833

E-mail: support@advisoralpha.in​

Principal Officer

Mr. Nipun Jalan

Contact number: 8655387833

E-mail: support@advisoralpha.in

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all related documents carefully before investing.

Standard Disclaimer: Registration granted by SEBI, enlistment as RA with Exchange and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors

Analyst Disclaimer: We, the research analysts and authors of this report, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities, issuers, products, sectors or industries. It is also certified that no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of the research report have taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.


SEBI regional office – G Block, Near Bank of India, Plot No. C 4-A, G Block Rd, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra East, Mumbai, Maharashtra 400051

© 2025 All rights reserved Advisor Alpha.

Download the App

SEBI Registration Number (RA License) – INH000021818

CIN: U67200MH2020PTC338091

BSE Enlistment number 6793

About the company

Registration Name – Renaissance Smart Tech Private Limited

Type of Registration- Non-Individual

Separate Identifiable division of RA: Advisor Alpha.

Date of grant and Validity of Registration: July 14, 2025 – Perpetual

SEBI registration No : INH000021818

BSE Enlistment No.: 6793

Office Address: Office No. 508, 5th Floor, B Wing, Mittal Commercial Premises CHS Ltd Off. M.V. Road. Near Mittal Estate, Marol, Andheri (East), Mumbai- 400059

Compliance & Grievance officer

Ms. Nidhi Kamani

Contact number: 8655387833

E-mail: support@advisoralpha.in​

Principal Officer

Mr. Nipun Jalan

Contact number: 8655387833

E-mail: support@advisoralpha.in

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all related documents carefully before investing.

Standard Disclaimer: Registration granted by SEBI, enlistment as RA with Exchange and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors

Analyst Disclaimer: We, the research analysts and authors of this report, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities, issuers, products, sectors or industries. It is also certified that no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of the research report have taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.


SEBI regional office – G Block, Near Bank of India, Plot No. C 4-A, G Block Rd, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra East, Mumbai, Maharashtra 400051