India–EU Trade Deal: Clear Winners, Clear Losers
Jan 27, 2026
AdvisorAlpha
Summary
India–EU trade deal boosts textiles, IT, chemicals, auto parts; metals and OEMs face CBAM pressure.
These sectors stand to gain the most from tariff reductions (currently 10–14% in EU) and easier market access.
Textiles & Apparel (Biggest Winner)
Currently, Indian exporters pay ~10% duty, while competitors like Bangladesh pay 0%. The FTA levels this playing field.
Impact: Immediate margin expansion or volume growth.
Key Companies:
Gokaldas Exports & KPR Mill: Large garment exporters with significant exposure to Western markets.
Welspun Living & Indo Count: Home textiles (bed sheets/towels) exporters.
Raymond: Suitings/fabric exports could see demand spikes.
IT Services & Tech
The deal is expected to ease visa norms for professionals and data flow regulations (GDPR alignment), effectively lowering the cost of doing business.
Impact: Higher deal win rates in Europe (traditionally a harder market than the US).
Key Companies:
TCS, Infosys, Wipro: All have been aggressively expanding European local delivery centers.
L&T Technology Services (LTTS): Benefits from European auto/manufacturing R&D outsourcing.
Specialty Chemicals & Pharma
Tariff elimination on chemicals will boost competitiveness against China. For Pharma, easier certification processes are the main goal.
Impact: Increased volume for contract manufacturers and generic exporters.
Key Companies:
SRF & Navin Fluorine: High export exposure in chemicals.
Divi’s Labs & Syngene: Contract manufacturing beneficiaries.
Auto Components (Ancillaries)
While complete cars are a sensitive topic, components are a sweet spot. Europe wants to diversify supply chains away from China (China+1).
Impact: Higher export orders for precision parts.
Key Companies:
Motherson Sumi (SAMIL): Already has huge revenue from Europe (Audi, VW, etc.).
Bharat Forge: Supplier of forged components to European truck/auto makers.
🔴 The Risky/Challenged Sectors
These sectors face headwinds from non-tariff barriers, specifically the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), essentially a "carbon tax" on imports entering the EU starting fully in 2026.
Metals (Steel & Aluminum)
The EU will tax imports based on the carbon emissions generated during their production. Indian steel is coal-heavy and carbon-intensive.
Impact: Exports to EU will become 20–35% more expensive, eroding margins or market share.
Key Companies at Risk:
Tata Steel: High exposure to Europe (though their Dutch plant helps, their Indian exports will be taxed).
JSW Steel & Jindal Steel (JSP): Significant export volumes could be hit.
Hindalco / Vedanta: Aluminum exports face similar carbon scrutiny.
Automobile OEMs (Luxury Competition)
If India lowers import duties on European cars (currently 100%), European luxury cars (Audi, BMW, Mercedes) will become cheaper, challenging domestic premium segments.
Key Companies:
Tata Motors (JLR): Ironically, this helps JLR (their luxury arm) sell cheaper in India, but hurts their domestic mass-market EV dominance if cheap VW/Renault EVs flood in.
Mahindra: Could face stiff competition in the premium SUV segment.
Other likely winners; GMM Pfaudler, Marksans , Balkrishna Industries, SSWL, Sudarshan Chemical , UPL, Mastek , Bharat Forge etc
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