What Happened

• The US announced a preliminary countervailing duty (CVD) of 125.87% on Indian solar cells and modules.

• Final determination scheduled for July 6.

• US solar imports from India in 2024: $792.6 million (9x 2022 levels).

• CVD based on “adverse facts available” — implies potential retroactive duties.

• Separate from global tariffs introduced under Donald Trump, which were recently struck down by the Supreme Court of the United States.

Market Reaction

Shares fell sharply as export risks were priced in:

• Waaree Energies

• Premier Energies

• Vikram Solar

Company Response

Waaree Energies

• US manufacturing capacity: 2.6 GW, expanding to 4.2 GW

• Investments in Oman + diversified sourcing

• No material impact expected on US order book

Vikram Solar

• Diversified supply chain

• Growth strategy anchored in India

Premier Energies

• Overseas sales already near zero

• Says impact from higher duties minimal

Industry Trends

• Exports to the US had already declined since August after investigation began.

• Module shipments plunged post-October due to tariff uncertainty.

• US also conducting a separate antidumping probe.

• Verification process underway before final ruling.

Countries already under US solar duties:
China, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam.

Broader Implications

• Could impact India’s PLI scheme for solar PV modules if ruling turns adverse.

• Reflects Washington’s push to:

  • Reduce China-linked supply chains

  • Boost domestic manufacturing

• India allowing SEZ-based solar units to sell domestically — reducing export dependence.

• Domestic demand remains structurally strong, though excess capacity risks persist.

What to Watch

• July 6 final CVD ruling

• Outcome of India–US trade talks

• Domestic order inflows vs export losses

• Margin pressure on smaller NBFC-funded players