Market Context: The "Goldilocks" vs. Reality
While India enters the Budget with a strong macro narrative (steady growth, controlled inflation), underlying signals are mixed:

• The "Glow": GDP growth for FY27 is projected at 6.8–7.2%, and India recently signed a major trade deal with the EU.
  
  

• The "Grim": Core industry growth slowed to 2.6% (April–Dec FY26), and the Rupee hit an all-time low of 92.00/USD.
  
  

India heads into the Union Budget with what appears to be a “Goldilocks” macroeconomic setup—steady growth, moderating inflation, fiscal consolidation on track, and improved sovereign ratings. But beneath this reassuring surface lie structural stresses that demand policy attention. This is not a moment for complacency; it is a moment to prepare for tomorrow’s challenges, not celebrate yesterday’s successes.

One worrying signal is the weakness in industrial momentum. Output from the eight core industries grew just 2.6 percent year-on-year during April–December FY26, among the slowest rates in a decade. The slowdown has been broad-based, with contractions in coal, crude oil, and natural gas, suggesting that growth is narrower than headline GDP numbers imply.

While public capital expenditure has played a crucial role in sustaining post-pandemic recovery, it cannot remain the sole growth engine indefinitely. Debt constraints and weakening revenue buoyancy pose limits. The Centre’s gross tax revenues grew only 3.3 percent in April–November FY26, far below the 10.8 percent growth assumption for the full year, highlighting the fragility of relying on public spending alone.

The real priority: jobs at scale
The most pressing task for the Budget is to make employment generation central to growth strategy. India needs labour-absorbing growth, not just capital-intensive expansion. This requires:

• Incentivising private investment, especially in MSMEs and manufacturing

• Removing frictions such as blocked input tax credits under GST

• Encouraging sectors with high employment elasticity, including construction, textiles, food processing, and services

Agriculture and productivity reform
Agriculture continues to support a large share of the workforce, yet productivity remains low. Budget priorities should include:

• Better price discovery and market access

• Investment in irrigation, storage, and logistics

• Gradual movement from subsidies toward income-enhancing reforms

Preparing for the AI transition
As artificial intelligence reshapes work globally, the Budget must address reskilling and workforce adaptability. Investment in human capital, vocational training, and digital skills will be essential to ensure technology becomes a job multiplier rather than a job destroyer.

Bottom line
The macro picture may look comfortable, but the underlying signals are mixed. A successful Budget will move beyond the Goldilocks glow and focus squarely on:

• Reviving private investment

• Creating jobs at scale

• Strengthening agriculture

• Preparing workers for technological disruption

Only then can growth become broad-based, durable, and inclusive.

 What Bharat wants from the Budget on February 1
Indian agriculture has shown remarkable resilience amid climate stress, but that resilience is now under pressure. While output has risen, farm incomes are falling, exposing deep structural issues the Union Budget must address. With nearly 46% of India’s workforce dependent on agriculture, rural distress can no longer be treated as a side issue.

Mint flags five priority areas where Budget intervention could revive rural incomes and productivity.

1) The core problem: Falling crop prices
Thanks to good monsoons, kharif foodgrain output rose 2.3% to 173 million tonnes in 2025–26. But prices moved in the opposite direction. Food prices were deflationary from June to December, with retail prices 2.7% lower YoY in December.

Most crops are now selling below MSP, including cotton and even non-MSP crops like potato and onion, where prices are 22–28% lower than last year. While this eased consumer inflation, it hit farmers’ incomes hard, dampening rural demand. The Budget must therefore strengthen price support and income-stabilisation mechanisms.

2) Fixing soil health to raise productivity
India is among the world’s largest producers of rice, wheat, fruits and vegetables—but yields lag global averages. A key reason is deteriorating soil health. Organic carbon content in Indian soils is just 0.3–0.6%, well below the desirable 1–1.5%.

The soil health card scheme, launched in 2015, has delivered limited results. Greater funding and better implementation of soil health programmes and natural farming missions could improve yields, food quality, and long-term sustainability.

3) Why farm research needs a big push
The Budget last year allocated ₹10,466 crore to agricultural research, less than 0.5% of farm GDP. This is inadequate given India’s productivity gaps and rising climate risks.

A 2024 government study found that every rupee invested in agricultural research delivers a 14-fold return. Scaling up research funding is among the highest-impact interventions the Budget can make.

4) Rethinking subsidies for better outcomes
India will spend about ₹3.7 trillion on food and fertiliser subsidies in 2025–26. Cheap urea has encouraged overuse, leading to nutrient imbalance and soil degradation. MSP-led procurement of rice and wheat has also skewed cropping patterns toward water-intensive cereals, increasing import dependence on pulses and oilseeds.

Experts argue for subsidy rationalisation, including a review of the ₹63,500 crore direct cash transfer scheme, with savings redirected toward irrigation, insurance, and research.

5) Non-farm schemes matter for rural incomes
Farm households derive over 40% of their income from wages, especially landless families. Spending on rural housing, roads, drinking water, and sanitation—estimated at ₹1.5 trillion in 2025–26—plays a vital role in supporting rural wages.

With the earlier rural jobs programme replaced by a new scheme, the scale and effectiveness of employment support will be closely watched in this Budget.

The bottom line
For Bharat, the Budget is not about headline growth numbers. It is about:

• Stabilising farm incomes

• Raising productivity through soil health and research

• Fixing distortive subsidies

• Strengthening rural employment beyond farming

A credible rural strategy could revive demand, improve food security, and make growth more balanced and durable.

It is Friday, January 30, 2026. This is the final full trading session before Union Budget Day (Sunday, February 1). While the domestic market has shown resilience with a "V-shaped" recovery, the "Pre-Budget" caution is now clashing with a massive sell-off in U.S. Big Tech and rising geopolitical tensions.

1. The "Budget Weekend" Strategy
Historical data shows that while Budget Day itself is often a wash (averaging a +0.19% move), the week after the Budget is where the real money is made, historically yielding an average return of +1.35%.

Critical Note:The stock market will be OPEN this Sunday, February 1, 2026, for a special session to react to the Budget. Any positions taken today (Friday) will be exposed to significant "event risk" over the weekend.

2. Sectoral "Budget Bets" & News