The Union Power Ministry has released the draft National Electricity Policy (NEP) 2026, which proposes a significant shift in electricity pricing in India. If implemented, these changes could lead to automatic annual increases in power bills to ensure the financial sustainability of distribution companies (discoms).

The policy targets universal quality power and ambitious consumption goals. Its most immediate impact will be the transition to index-linked, automatic tariff revisions.

1. The New Pricing Model: Automatic Annual Hikes

• Traditionally, power tariffs are set by State Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs) after public hearings.

• Political pressure often delays revisions, causing losses for discoms.

Index-Linked Revision (FY 2026-27 onward):

• Tariffs automatically revise based on a pre-defined index (like Retail Price Index or CPI).

• Ensures bills keep pace with inflation and rising fuel costs without manual intervention.

Monthly "Pass-Through":

• Any increase in the cost of purchasing power (due to fuel prices or global trends) will be passed on to consumers monthly.

Stabilization Funds:

• Discoms encouraged to set up funds to manage extreme cost fluctuations, which may result in additional surcharges.

2. Impact on Different Consumer Groups

Households:

• Higher bills expected due to fixed charge increases.

Industrial / Manufacturing:

• Lower bills. Exemptions for manufacturing, railways, metro rail to boost competitiveness.

Agricultural Consumers:

• Vulnerable. “Free power” discouraged unless states pay subsidies in advance.

3. Strategic Goals of NEP 2026

• Consumption Targets: Increase per capita electricity consumption from ~1,460 kWh → 2,000 kWh by 2030, 4,000 kWh by 2047.

• Nuclear & Renewable Push: Target 100 GW nuclear capacity by 2047; promote Small Modular Reactors for industry.

• Ending Distribution Monopoly: Multiple players to share distribution networks, giving consumers choice of supplier.

• Cybersecurity: All power sector data to be stored domestically; indigenous SCADA system by 2030.

4. Ending the "Regulatory Asset" Trap

• Regulatory assets = expenditures approved but not charged to consumers immediately (~₹3 trillion nationwide).

• NEP 2026 mandates tariffs fully reflect costs, removing hidden debts.

5. Why the Government Is Doing This

Discom Problem:

• AT&C losses: ~15%

• Debt: ~₹7 trillion

• Regulatory assets: ~₹3 trillion

• Tariffs often not revised for years → financially weak discoms

Current Tariffs vs Global Peers:

Goal: Reduce cross-subsidies → residential bills may rise closer to actual Average Cost of Supply (₹6.82/unit).

6. Why Now?

• Massive debt: ₹7 trillion for state-owned discoms.

• Growing demand: India’s power demand expected to double by 2032.

• Energy transition: Meeting net-zero 2070 goals requires massive investments in storage and green grids (~₹200 lakh crore by 2047).

• Efficiency: Reduce AT&C losses from 15% → single digits.

7. How the Index Will Work (Illustrative)

• Likely formula: RPI/CPI – X (efficiency factor)

• Used in countries like UK & Australia

• Designed by state regulators

• Key concern: Strong oversight needed to prevent monopoly abuse.

8. Big Picture Takeaways

• Power tariffs may become predictable but steadily rising

• Political discretion in tariff hikes will reduce

• Consumers likely pay more, but discom balance sheets improve

• Long-term goal: financially viable, investment-ready power sector

9. Broader Power Sector Impact

Positives:

• Better financial discipline

• More bankable discoms

• Encourages investment in generation, renewables, storage

• Supports India’s goals: 2,000 kWh per capita by 2030, net zero by 2070

Risks:

• Consumer backlash due to visible, frequent hikes

• Political friction between Centre & states

• Inflation sensitivity (especially for households)

10. Market & Stock Implications

Potential Beneficiaries:

• Power utilities & generators (NTPC, Power Grid, renewables)

• Discom-linked reforms reduce payment risk

• Energy exchanges, transmission & smart metering players

Neutral to Negative:

• Power-intensive industries (cement, metals) in short term

• Consumer-facing sectors sensitive to inflation

11. Bottom Line

• Good economics, tough politics

• Power bills likely to rise regularly and automatically

• Discom balance sheets improve → sector more investable

• Consumers pay more, but power system becomes sustainable

12. Illustrative Annual Power Bill Increases

Assumptions:

• Index-linked to inflation (CPI/RPI), 4–6% annual inflation

• Monthly pass-through allowed

• Gradual reduction in cross-subsidy

• Higher fixed charges over time

Key Insight:

• Bills won’t spike suddenly; steady, predictable annual increases

• Biggest impact via fixed charges and monthly fuel-cost adjustments

13. Data Centre Note

• Navi Mumbai (Mahape) → India’s "Data Centre Capital"

• Key factors:

  • Subsea cable landings → high-speed international data transfer

  • Reliable industrial power grid

  • Compliance with localisation laws for sensitive data